The main driving force for the rise in USDCHF should be Thursday's decision to cut Swiss interest rates by 0.25. The situation in other major currency pairs is also significant, as both EURUSD and GBPUSD currently show weakness, which may continue. Although Friday's session starts with retail sales in the UK, followed by PMI data sequentially from the Eurozone, the UK, and finally the US.
Therefore, it will likely be a play on the PMI data releases, with slight improvements expected from the Eurozone and UK, and slight deterioration in US indicators. A major surprise in data releases can cause changes in the current scenario, so it's often wise to stay on the sidelines in such situations.
Time Frame D1
The D1 chart for USDCHF shows that after a one-day dip below the 200 SMA D1, there was a quick and important return above the average. The rise was due to the Swiss Central Bank's decision to cut interest rates, but later, weaker data from the US labor market was published, and the level was defended. During the US trading session, USDCHF maintained its level, which is rare.
It's interesting to see how the Friday session with PMI releases will be played out; the market (institutions) had to buy some USDCHF and will likely want to sell it higher. Similarly, if institutions took shorts on EURUSD and GBPUSD, they should be interested in a drop in the rates. We'll see how the European market opens after the UK retail sales data is published. An improvement is expected, but it's an improvement after previous significant drops. If the market quashes attempts to rise in the Pound after the data, it would be an indication, but everything will be clarified only during the PMI releases.
Time Frame H1
On the hourly chart (H1), we see a spike caused by the Swiss interest rate cut, a defended pullback after the release of weaker US labor market data, and later, level maintenance during the US session. If weaker data than expected on retail sales emerges, followed by not-so-good PMI from the Eurozone, USDCHF should strengthen. At least up to the first resistance on the chart.
Time Frame M15
Before the European data releases, we still have the Asian session, and possibly during the Asian session, USDCHF will continue to rise so that in case of good data from Europe, USDCHF can be sold from a higher level. If it weren't for the Friday data, I would bet on an increase in USDCHF and a drop in EURUSD and GBPUSD, but with important data in the background, it's better to stay on the sidelines and reanalyze after the publication.
Economic Calendar
Key data that may affect the market:
Friday: UK retail sales.
Friday: PMI data from the Eurozone, UK.
Friday: PMI data from the US.
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