Trading competitions for the best traders offer the opportunity to win valuable prizes, test one’s strategy in a competitive environment, and compete with top traders. However, they are also an invaluable source of inspiring information necessary for refining one’s trading strategy. We can analyze the strategy of a successful trader and identify the factors that may have contributed to their success. We can determine what a good trader does differently or what they avoid doing, allowing us to identify weaknesses in our own strategy.
Below, we will take a closer look at a trader who participated in the monthly competition organized by FundedNext in November 2024. The top ten traders that month achieved a profit relative to their deposit ranging from 104% to 144%, meaning that the best participant, starting with a $100K account, ended the month with a balance of $244K. Upon closer examination of individual trades, it becomes apparent that many of the top traders reached their results through one or a few highly leveraged profitable trades. However, I am more interested in analyzing the strategy of a trader who traded consistently and profitably throughout the entire period, with almost no mistakes. That’s why I chose to focus on the trader who placed fifth with a result of 118%: Etion M., whose equity curve appears promising.
Basic characteristics
Trader Etion M. achieved a return of 118.09% relative to the deposit value over the course of a month. This result was based on 64 trades, primarily on gold and the US30 index. While most trades were on gold, there was a period when he traded exclusively on US30. During this time, he had as many as 47 losing trades, meaning that the proportion of profitable trades was significantly lower than 50%—just 26%. A win rate of 26% seems almost unbelievably low.
Most losses were cut quickly, raising the question of whether they were cut too soon—did he wait for the price to recover, or did he close losses immediately? The majority of losses were under $1K, and considering a position size of 3 lots for gold and the US30 index, losses of around $1K were not substantial. However, for the US30 index on the FundedNext platform, a position size of 3 lots is undoubtedly large. The trader’s history also includes losing trades of $3K and $4K.
The key to success was large profitable trades: the first at $34K on gold, the second at $31K on US30, the third at $19K on gold, followed by two trades of $14K on gold, and one trade of $10K, also on gold. These six profitable trades totaled $124K, while the remaining winning trades helped offset most of the losses.
As we can see above, the equity curve has been steadily rising almost continuously since trading began on November 5, 2024, until the end of the month. The only decline in value occurred between November 12 and 14. If this wasn’t just a lucky month for the trader, it’s likely that he has a solid trading approach—most importantly, he avoids major setbacks and drawdowns on the equity curve.
It is certainly worth taking a closer look at his trading strategy and the market conditions during this period. Therefore, we will analyze the gold and US30 index charts from this timeframe, overlay his trades on the charts, and then attempt to draw some conclusions.
XAUUSD
The purple rectangle on the gold chart represents the duration of the competition, which took place in November 2024. Leading up to this period, gold was in a strong uptrend, with solid support in the form of a trendline. It wasn’t until November 6 that a large bearish candlestick appeared, decisively breaking this support.
The following day, gold recovered some of its losses but failed to move back above the trendline. The next trading day saw a return of the downward movement (remaining below the trendline and the fast-moving average on the D1 timeframe), confirming that gold was struggling to continue its upward trend.
US30
US30 was also in a strong uptrend leading up to November 2024. The correction at the end of October found support at the trendline (briefly dipping below it). At the beginning of November, a strong bullish candlestick pushed the price back above the trendline, approaching the fast-moving average on the D1 timeframe. This setup remained bullish, as the correction from late October presented a buying opportunity.
Trader Etion M.'s Trading
The trader started his trading with gold. Despite the strong uptrend, he opened two short positions on November 4. There was no clear structural break—just a correction that found support. The price was holding near the fast-moving average on D1, where a technical rebound toward further gains could have been expected. Nonetheless, the trader entered short positions in a calm market without clear selling pressure.
Traders who focus on gold closely monitor the dollar's movements. If the dollar strengthens significantly, gold may experience a weaker period. During this time, the dollar did strengthen, but the rally was halted and did not have a major impact on gold. Therefore, the decision to short gold was likely based more on speculation and the U.S. elections rather than technical factors. The expectation was that if Trump won, the dollar could strengthen significantly.
U.S. Presidential Elections
This somewhat disrupts my plan of analyzing the trader’s strategy—on the eve of the election, it is difficult to expect trades that don’t take the election results into account. If Trump were to win, a stronger dollar and potential euphoria in the stock and crypto markets could be anticipated. Gold was already expensive and had likely exhausted its upward momentum (at least temporarily), making profit-taking a reasonable expectation.
Gold Trades
The first two or three trades have been marked on the M15 chart with a red arrow. Does the chart indicate that short positions should be taken? The first red arrow represents two trades executed at around 22:45 on November 4, according to server time. One position was for 1 lot, and the other for 2 lots.
The following day, the trader closed the smaller position with a $1,317 loss, meaning the entire position must have been at a loss of approximately $4,000 at that moment. The price moved slightly in the opposite direction, nearly reaching the daily loss limit.
The second red arrow represents a re-entry into the closed position at 19:09 server time. Before the decline started, there was once again a small upward move, which could have closed the account, but eventually, on November 6, during the Asian session, gold began to sell off.
The next three transactions on gold: the first was a buy after a very large drop, perhaps slightly late. If the trader assumed a rebound after such a large drop the previous day, they could have entered the trade a bit earlier, as the price had already moved. The second transaction was a sell when the price failed to hold above the 50 SMA on M15. The third transaction was a buy, which was probably a big mistake—moving averages were sharply bent downward, dropping rapidly, and I probably wouldn’t have dared to buy here. The first two trades were profitable, the third resulted in a loss.
In the chart above, we can see that the trader can't decide on the direction. He sells, buys, sells again, buys again, and finally, the fifth sale transaction gives him a large profit. The 50 SMA is strongly curved downward, so it would be advisable to look for selling opportunities. However, with such large positions, a sharp move in the opposite direction forced the trader to close the positions.
A similar situation occurred on November 13, where there were five attempts to take long positions and five attempts to take short positions. Nine consecutive trades ended up being unprofitable, but the last short position brought a profit of 14K. In total, the losing positions on gold cost him 10K, and on the same day, the trader also opened losing positions on US30, costing him an additional 8K. He didn't blow the account only because the short sale of gold entered on November 11 gave him 14K, which was closed on November 13.
On November 14, there were two attempts to take short positions and two attempts to take long positions on gold. The last transaction is one of those that pay for everything: the long position on gold entered on November 14 was closed only on November 22 at a price of 2682. During this period, the trader captured 110 big points on gold in this one transaction, earning 34K from it.
Looking at this trade, I wonder what motivated the trader to hold this position for such a long time. Gold showed its first signs of weakness on November 19, and on November 20, it significantly broke the support. A lot of resources were spent trying to defend the level on November 20, so gold had to continue higher, but looking at the gold chart on November 20, it would have been hard to withstand such pressure.
The chart above shows the movement of gold during the time the trader held his most profitable position. After a significant drop, gold entered a strong uptrend, and as long as each correction happened above the 50 SMA, we saw strong growth. The first problems and a breach of the 50 SMA occurred on November 19, with another breach on November 20, which significantly broke the 50 SMA.
The next three trades on gold: the first one is a buy on November 22. The trader decides to close the most profitable position practically without any negative signals on gold. The trade made a lot of profit, so its closure is not surprising, but almost immediately, he opens another position in the same direction (earning another 3K on this trade). The second trade, a short on gold opened on November 25, is held until the end of November 26 and gives him another 19K. The third trade, a buy on gold, also gives the trader a profit, an additional 3K.
Between November 26 and 29, the trader experiences a large series of failures. In total, 12 consecutive trades end in loss. However, during this time, he only loses 4K, quickly deciding to cut his losses. Most losses don’t exceed 1K, and often they are much smaller. The question is whether this is a well-practiced skill or additional pressure to maintain a good result at the end of the contest. For me, one of the hardest things to master is the ability to cut losses quickly.
Finally, on November 29, he enters a buy trade on gold, marked by the green arrow on the chart, which gives him an additional 5.9K. Later, he has two more losing trades, and trading on gold ends for the month.
Trades on US30.
A similar situation can be seen with trading on US30. The trader quickly changes his mind, and if most of the trades had been profitable, I would assume he’s trading on lower timeframes, and I might be missing something by analyzing M15. Here, most of the trades are losing, and only the last trade, well, the last trade on US30 pays for everything, providing a profit of 31K.
The chart above shows the last three trades on US30. First, the trader takes a long position, which he closes with a profit of 2K. After a longer consolidation, he takes a short position and closes it a few minutes later with a small loss. Almost simultaneously, he opens a long position, the last trade on US30, which gives him a profit of 31K.
Summary
For sure, if not the entire trading period, the beginning took place under the influence of the US presidential elections. I also have the feeling that the trader is making decisions on lower timeframes because perhaps I don’t understand something. Reviewing the statement, I realized that it’s possible to have a low win rate and still be profitable, as long as you can catch longer price movements. I think a win rate of 26% with a high return on investment is a good month and a fortunate game on large positions.
This example shows that the skill of capturing longer moves is very profitable and worth practicing. I got the impression that the trader might have been too hasty in taking positions, once in one direction and then in the other, hoping to catch a longer move. During the contest month, the trader succeeded in this approach.
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