Recently, gold has shown increasingly weaker rebounds from the 2300 support level. However, the upcoming NFP release last week and expectations of worsening labor market conditions weakened the dollar, giving gold additional strength.
We saw a spike to 2395, which is quite significant, but currently, gold is losing ground. Profit-taking is highly likely, with a potential return to levels of 2300-2340.
Time Frame D1
The day started with declines for gold. EURUSD is holding its level, but it's showing signs of weakening. USDCHF is slowly rising, recovering last week's losses, but not impressively. GBPUSD stands out by rising for now.
I think that the pound will eventually weaken, leading to profit-taking from last week's gains, and the dollar will recover some losses. On the D1 gold chart, the first resistance might be the 50 SMA.
Time Frame H1
On the hourly chart (H1), we see that the price held at the 2325 level for an extended period, roughly coinciding with the 200 SMA on H1, which may be the first resistance. Currently, the 50 SMA on H1 is being tested; breaking it could open the way to the next resistance.
Time Frame M15
On the M15 chart, the trendline has been broken, but the price has received support at the 200 SMA. If the gold price is to rise, it should reverse around here. EURUSD is having increasing difficulties maintaining its rate, and GBPUSD is also struggling to rise. Therefore, betting on a gold price increase right now is too risky.
A more definitive answer will come after the opening of the US futures markets, before the stock market opens. For the whole week, the key events will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech and Thursday's CPI data from the US.
Economic Calendar for This Week
Key data that may impact the market includes:
Tuesday: US - Fed Chairman Powell's speech,
Wednesday: NZD - interest rate decision,
Wednesday: USD - Fed Chairman Powell's speech,
Thursday: GBP - GDP data (May),
Friday: USD - CPI (June).
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