We are after the first, symbolic interest rate cut in the Eurozone. The EURUSD rate fell during this time from 1.090 to 1.068, which is not a significant sell-off. The Euro may further decline, but if there are no major economic surprises, the rate will likely move in the range of 1.060 - 1.090, at least until the market starts pricing in rate cuts in the United States.
Time Frame D1
Yesterday saw the second rebound from the 1.068 level, and currently, we are below the 200 SMA on the D1. Today we will see if we continue the move towards 1.060 or if we are forming a new higher low at 1.068. It is the end of the month, and in the last week, there are fewer positions in the economic calendar on which to base predictions about the future direction.
Yesterday's stronger session and the second rebound from 1.068 raise the question of whether the market will bounce off 1.060 or if it now wants to return above the 200 SMA and create a higher low. This could mean a move towards 1.09, which would require a clear move towards the average in today's session.
Time Frame H1
On the H1 chart, trading has so far been below the 200 SMA for H1. Overnight, the market pushed the rate above the 200 SMA, but it remains to be seen if this is a lasting move or just temporary. From the 18th to the 20th of this month, the 1.075 level was a solid resistance for EURUSD, following the interest rate cut decision, the euro was weak.
Today we will see what the market does with the rate if there are no significant data points to influence trading. A downward move could target the 1.068 level, then possibly 1.060. However, if the second rebound from 1.068 signaled an upward move, first we have the 200 SMA, and then possibly the 1.09 level.
Time Frame M15
On today's Asian session (M30), trading moved above the 200 SMA M30, which is slightly curved upwards. A pullback to the red average and holding the rate there could provide a pretext for taking a long position, at least until the end of today.
Economic Calendar
Key data that may affect the market:
Tuesday: US CB Consumer Confidence (June),
Wednesday: US New Home Sales (May),
Thursday: US GDP (Q1),
Friday: UK GDP (QoQ),
Friday: US Core PCE (May).
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